@Article{MarengoCamAlvDinBet:2021:AnBr,
               author = "Marengo, Jos{\'e} A. and Camarinha, Pedro I. and Alves, Lincoln 
                         Muniz and Diniz, Fabio and Betts, Richard A.",
          affiliation = "{Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais 
                         (CEMADEN)} and {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de 
                         Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas 
                         de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)} and {University of Exeter}",
                title = "Extreme Rainfall and Hydro-Geo-Meteorological Disaster Risk in 
                         1.5, 2.0, and 4.0°C Global Warming Scenarios: An Analysis for 
                         Brazil",
              journal = "Frontiers in Climate",
                 year = "2021",
               volume = "3",
                pages = "1--13",
                 note = "{Pr{\^e}mio CAPES Elsevier 2023 - ODS 8: Trabalho decente e 
                         crescimento econ{\^o}mico}",
             keywords = "climate extremes, climate-related disasters, climate change, 
                         disaster risk reduction, vulnerability.",
             abstract = "With the inclusion of demographic characteristics of the 
                         population living in vulnerable areas, a combination of empirical 
                         and climate models was used to project changes to climate and in 
                         hydro-geo-meteorological disasters in Brazil. This study 
                         investigated the effect of extreme rainfall changes and the risk 
                         of floods and landslides under 1.5, 2.0, and 4.0\◦ C global 
                         warming levels (GWLs). Projections from a large ensemble of 
                         pre-CMIP6 models and different warming levels show a remarkable 
                         change in heavy precipitation. As a result, with increasing 
                         warming this enhances the risk of landslides and flash floods in 
                         the context of climate change. Comparisons of vulnerability and 
                         change in potential impacts of landslides and floods show that 
                         three regions, highly densely populated areas, are the most 
                         exposed to landslides and floods. The Southern and Southeastern of 
                         Brazil stand out, including metropolitan regions with high 
                         economic development and densely populated, which may be those 
                         where disasters can intensify both in terms of frequency and 
                         magnitude. The eastern portion of the Northeast is also signaled 
                         as one of the affected regions due to its high vulnerability and 
                         exposure since the present period, although the projections of 
                         future climate do not allow conclusive results regarding the 
                         intensification of extreme rainfall events in scenarios below 
                         4\◦C. The main metropolitan regions and tourist resorts, 
                         and key infrastructure in Brazil are located in those regions. 
                         This study highlights the importance of environmental policies to 
                         protect human lives and minimize financial losses in the coming 
                         decades and reinforces the need for decision-making, monitoring, 
                         and early warning systems to better manage disasters as part of 
                         disaster risk reduction risk management.",
                  doi = "10.3389/fclim.2021.610433",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.610433",
                 issn = "2624-9553",
                label = "lattes: 2194275113941232 3 MarengoCamAlvDinBet:2021:AnBr",
             language = "pt",
           targetfile = "marengo_extreme.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "09 maio 2024"
}